Senegal’s NDC has an unconditional and conditional target, depending on international aid. It is based in a BAU scenario taking into account 2010 as base year.
Senegal posits its mitigation by establishing 2025 as middle point and 2030 as the end point. The numbers are as follow: (i) In the reference year, a projection of emissions to 2025 (32648,6097 GgCO2eq) and 2030 (37761,1405 GgCO2eq) were foreseen; (ii) In the unconditional scenario, Senegal proposes reductions of 5% (30987 GgCO2eq) and 7% (35106 GgCO2eq) respectivaly to 2025 and 2030 emissions; (iii) In the conditional scenario, the goals are bolder, reaching 23,78% (24883,0564 GgCO2eq) in 2025 and 25,53% (26611,0057 GgCO2eq) in 2030.
The main policy instrument to be set is the carbon market and the main sector to be tackled is the electricity and power, shifting to renewables and for less intensive fuel (e.g. from oil to natural gas) (Senegal NDC, 2020).
The country aims to go an extra mile with international aid mainly in the electricity sector, outlining an unconditional achievement of a cumulative installed solar capacity of 235 MW, 150MW in wind power, 314 MW in hydroelectricity in 2030 and presents a conditional one of an additional solar capacity of 100 MW, 100 MW in wind power, 50 MW of biomass, 50 MW of CSP, by 2030. Moreover, Senegal has a wider goal to reach 999 MW in renewable energies (conditionally) and invest to switch carbon intensive fuels to natural gas in dual thermal power stations (fuel oil / gas), which will bring the total installed 600 MW of natural gas between 2025 and 2030.